As we are all gearing up for the upcoming fantasy baseball season, we will inevitably inevitably be hit with a barrage of everyone’s top 10 rankings, fantasy magazines, mock drafts, etc. etc.
Which is fine, the more the merrier right? And by the way we will put one out ourselves next week.
The important thing to remember with preseason analysis and rankings is that they are in no way written in stone.
Therefore, just because Robinson Cano is ranked in the top 10, doesn’t mean he will have the great season that is being predicted for him. Predicted success does not gurantee you actual success.
Just because you might think that we have some unwritten code with pigeons that they will move out of our way when walking or driving toward them, because we look the other way on their statue defecations, doesn’t necessarily mean that they will move. Just ask George Costanza.
For example, in 2013 in most snake drafts, only three players that were ranked in the pre-season top 10 actually finished in the top 10 by season’s end. Two thirds of players finishing in the top 15 were not in the top 15 the previous year. There is a great deal of turnover in the first round, year-to-year (Ron Shandler, 2014 Baseball Forecaster).
Meaning you could end up drafting Carlos Gonzalez thinking he is going to be one of your top stat producers and he could trip over first base and tear his ACL trying to beat out a grounder. Making your 1st round pick completely irrelevant. Now I’m not saying that this is going to happen, but it very well could.
Fantasy baseball leagues are not just won on draft day, they are won with preparation, attention to detail, in-season management and mind numbing patience.
Essentially all I’m saying is that while top 10 rankings, mock drafts, and fantasy baseball magazines can come in handy, don’t base your whole season on them. Otherwise you might find yourself begging other managers to trade with you or spending every waking hour of the season on the waiver wire.
Follow Matt on Twitter: @SprayBall
