We are back with our next 10 starters! Keep in mind that as we work our way down to 30, you will start seeing a decline in performance and skills. It’s not a clear decline, but if you look at the numbers closely, you will begin to notice a difference.
What’s exciting about rankings though, is that they are not written in stone, but a good starting place to begin formulating your draft strategy.
Once you get past 30 you will really have to look at the numbers more closely, but when you do, you’ll be able to separate the sleepers from the busts!
Let’s take a look at our Top Starting Pitchers in 2014 (11-20):
11. Zack Greinke- Greinke had another consistent and productive season in 2013, and is looking to improve in 2014. Greinke had a shoulder injury setback early on during the season when he decided to go WWE on Carlos Quentin. He missed about a month and it took several starts for him to get back in the zone. Greinke had 15 perfect PQS starts in 2013, a .234 BAA and a 2.63 ERA (which was his best since 2009). As long as Greinke can stay healthy and decide not to try any double leg takedowns on anyone this season, look for a repeat and potential for huge upside.
12. Jose Fernandez- A rookie of the year award and 2nd runner-up for the NL Cy Young in 2013, Fernandez established that he has elite pitching skills. Fernandez had 14 perfect PQS starts, a .182 BAA and a 2.19 ERA in 2013. He also had only four starts with a PQS score lower than three. All that being said here are three things you need to take into consideration before drafting him: 1.Regression 2. He pitches for the Marlins 3. See number 2.
13. David Price- 2013 was Price’s worst season since he was called up in 2009. He had a horrendous 1st half where he went 1-4, with a 5.24 ERA and then had a stint on the DL with a triceps injury. Price turned things around in the 2nd half going 9-4, with a 2.53 ERA, and posting 10 perfect PQS starts for the season. Another great example that regression can happen to anyone. That being said, Price’s skills are still in tact as evidenced by his 2nd half bounce-back in 2013. Expect him to bounce all the way back in 2014.
14. Cole Hamels- Hamels, as I mentioned in my opening for the 1-10 starting pitcher rankings, is a starter who also suffered from regression last season. A closer look at Hamels numbers points out two indicators of last season’s collapse. Hits, and earned runs. Hamels gave up 205 hits in 2013, The most out of any starter in this particular ranking (11-20). And with the exception of Lance Lynn, Hamels gave up the highest amount of earned runs out of any other starter on this list. Amazingly, Hamels had 12 perfect PQS starts, and only three starts under a PQS score of three all season. Translation? His skills are still elite, and you should expect a bounce back. Be cautious, Hamels is supposed to miss his 1st start due to shoulder tendonitis.
15. Matt Cain- it was easy to see that Cain regressed in 2013, but it wasn’t just a simple regression. Matt Cain was a regression anomaly in 2013. And here’s how I came to that conclusion. In 2013 Cain had career lows in ERA (4.00) and strikeouts (158). However, he managed to pitch 12 perfect PQS starts, and had only six starts under a PQS score of 3. Despite how bad it looked on the surface, Cain still showed signs of elite skill throughout the season. Basically 2013 was a statistical roller coaster of the season for Cain. In 2014, there is no reason why he cannot return to prominence, but bid with caution over the possibility of more regression.
16. Gio Gonzalez- Gonzalez on the surface had a disappointing season last year following his 21 win season in 2012. However, if you take a closer look you will see that Gonzalez pitched rather well in 2013. He maintained a low 3.36 ERA, a decent BAA of .231, and posted 16 perfect PQS starts. A great value to get late in your draft if everyone else is focusing on his surface stats from last season.
17. Kris Medlen- Medlen’s first full season was a success, but not as dominant as many had hoped. With advanced discounting and 59 more innings to pitch than in 2012, Medlen was truly tested. Medlen posted a 3.11 ERA, 157 K’s, and had 15 perfect PQS starts in 2013. So what is the problem you may ask? In 2013, his walks nearly doubled, and strikeouts did not. In just 12 games started in 2012, Medlen had 120K’s. In 2013 he had posted only 147 K’s in 31 games, which compared to 2012 looks troubling. 2014 will give Medlen another shot at hopefully returning to his 2012 form.
18. Homer Bailey- Bailey had a so-so 2013 season as the numbers would suggest (11-12, 199 K’s, 3.49 ERA), but his skills as a starting pitcher are continually improving. Bailey had 17 perfect PQS starts in 2013, and only 3 starts with a PQS score under three. A sleeper pick, as most fantasy owners will overlook, or underestimate him, allowing you the advantage of possibly taking him late, or at a discount.
19. Lance Lynn- When fantasy owners look to the Cardinals pitching staff they immediately see Adam Wainwright and begin to foam at the mouth. And no one would blame them. However, fantasy owners often make the mistake of ignoring the rest of the Cardinals pitching staff. Lance Lynn is not a starter that you want to ignore. Lynn finished 2013 15-10, with 198 K’s, and a 3.97 ERA in 2013. He also posted 15 perfect PQS starts in 2013. A word of warning, if his walks, earned runs, and batting average against continue to elevate you may want to reconsider. Otherwise he could be a useful inning eater for your teams pitching staff with tons of potential.
20. Hisashi Iwakuma-Iwakuma- had an impressive first full season in 2013, especially considering it was in Seattle. He was 14-6, with 185 K’s, a 2.66 ERA, and a BAA right at the Mendoza line (.220). Iwakuma also posted 14 perfect PQS starts, and had only two starts under a PQS score of three! One thing to watch for is his propensity to give up the long ball ( he allowed 25 home runs in 2013). Also he will miss 4 to 6 weeks due to a finger injury, so keep that in mind as you go into your draft.
Next week we will release the rest of the top 30 starting pitchers, and also, our top 10 catchers!
Follow Matt on Twitter: @SprayBall
