Unlike the position of catcher, there is a plethora of depth at first base. With that said, there is a great deal of difference between the first basemen that are ranked in our top 10, and what is left.
If you don’t get your hands on one of the top 10 first basemen, your team will not face inevitable fantasy doom. No, no, no. Just understand that while Mark Trumbo may have tremendous power at his disposal, he does not seem to possess the ability (for now) of plate discipline. Therefore, you have a high number of home runs, strikeouts, and a lousy batting average. Not exactly the ideal candidate.
As always our rankings are not written in stone as the ten commandments of fantasy baseball success. It is more of a point in the right direction.
Here are the AGSH Top 10 1B in Fantasy Baseball for 2014:
1. Paul Goldschmidt- Goldschmidt had a mammoth 2013 season. Career highs in OBP (.401), home runs (36), RBI (125), SLG (.551), OPS (.952), RISP AVG (.338), and extra base hits (75). Honestly, there is always a chance of regression, but that’s a stretch. Of course you will pay top dollar, but it’s worth it for the 15 stolen bases he will add to your team!
2. Chris Davis- Davis had a monster 2013 season, in which he lead all of MLB in home runs (53), and RBI (138). And if any of you who were lucky enough to draft him, or pick him up off waivers, you hit the jack-pot. The only question to ask now? Was his performance in 2013 his new mean, or will he experience a huge regression in 2014? The answer is no one knows. However, keep this in mind. Davis’ power index went up 104 points, in 2013. Which is insane. So even if he regresses, he will still be able to put up top 10 numbers, just not the numbers he did in 2013.
3. Edwin Encarnacion- Encarnacion has proved himself as an elite player over the last two seasons, with increasing power and consistency. He completed the 2013 season ranked among the AL top 10 in: extra base hits (66), SLG (.534), home runs (36), walks (82), and RBI (104). One thing to watch for with Encarnacion is his health. Specifically, he had surgery on his left wrist toward the end of the 2013 season. Supposing that Encarnacion can remain healthy this season expect another 2013 repeat.
4. Joey Votto- Granted that Votto has yet to reclaim his 2010, and 2011 numbers, he is still a very effective hitter. Votto led the NL in 2013 with a .435 OBP, and 135 walks. He also finished the season ranked 10th in NL batting average with a .305 AVG. Votto is a great investment if he can begin to regain some of the power he has lost over the last few seasons. Even if it doesn’t return, he is still a solid choice at 1B.
5. Prince Fielder- Fielder is another first basemen who seems to be dropping off in the power category. His power index has continually dropped over the past two seasons (170 in ’11, 126 in ’12, and 119 in ’13). Be that as it may, Fielder has now been traded to the Texas Rangers, whose ball park is arguably one of the best hitters parks in all of MLB. Look for Fielder to rebound close to his 2012 numbers.
6. Freddie Freeman- When two of your biggest offseason acquisitions aren’t cutting it at the plate, someone has to pick up the slack. Fortunately for the Braves, Freeman was up for the task. Freeman had a career season in 2013, finishing among the NL top 10 in: hits (176), RBI (109), multi hit games (52), OBP (.396), SLG (.501), and RISP AVG (.443). If he had not before, Freeman has left no doubt that he is now among the elite first basemen. Expect another 2013, if not more!
7. Adrian Gonzalez- As with all aging sluggers, their numbers start to plummet the older they get. And unless your name is Barry Bonds and you have a 75 lb dome, regression is going to find you. Gonzalez is still finding ways to be effective despite the odds. Not as effective as he was in ‘ 09, but you can still expect him to get you close to 20/100/ .290. That’s not a bad grab at 1B.
8. Albert Pujols- This is going to be very simple. In 2011 Pujols, had a fractured forearm, and in 2013 he had plantar fasciitis problems. These two injuries kept him out for 80 days. Pujols seems to have become a risky investment in fantasy baseball. If you can get him cheap then it lowers your risk. That being said, if he continues to be an injury risk, you may not get your money’s worth.
9. Allen Craig- Craig underperformed in 2013, disappointing many fantasy owners (including myself) expecting the power he displayed in 2012. Home run totals tend to drop though when your power index drops from 140 to 99. Ouch. Now the bright side(yes, there is one), he is very consistent, (.300 AVG, and 90 RBI over the past two seasons.)and he posted a huge RISP AVG (.454) in 2013. Just don’t get caught in a bidding war, and remember what to expect if you go after him.
10. Anthony Rizzo- Many fantasy owners turned up their nose at Rizzo by the end of last season, and that understandable considering his numbers. However, Rizzo has huge upside and potential to bounce back in a major way in 2014. Considering he lost no initial skills last season, look for him for his numbers to improve.
Follow Matt on Twitter: @SprayBall
