David Price has been quite the conundrum this year. As of writing this article, he ranks at the top of the majors in some of the indicators of peak performance as well as at the bottom in some of the indicators of impending collapse. After winning 20 games and putting the AL Cy Young hardware on his mantle in 2012, he had a puzzling encore performance last season. He struggled early on, before a triceps injury parked him on the DL for a month and half. Upon returning, he regained his dominant form but seemed to become a slightly different pitcher. His strikeout percentage took a slight plummet but that also corresponded with a diminished walk rate. It certainly looked like he was becoming less of a hurler and more of a control pitcher. When the dust settled, his win total was cut in half and his ERA had risen by nearly a full run, but he also had the best K/BB ratio in the AL at a sterling 5.59. Coming into this season, there were high hopes that he could maintain this impeccable control but spike his K-rate back up to his previous elite levels.
Fast forward to June, and Price has done just that! He’s maintained the control and is boasting the most Ks in the majors with 111 to go along with the best walk rate at 0.90. Let the utter absurdity of that wash over you for a second. The same guy that has struck out the most batters also has the best BB/9 ratio! While those two statistics should not necessarily be mutually exclusive, they should also not have a positive correlation. After all, in one regards you must try to get batters to swing at tough pitches (many outside of the strike zone) and the other you are keeping the ball firmly within the strike zone in order to avoid walks. Price’s K/BB is at 11.10; no other starter has a ratio that currently tops 8.0. Oh, and that’s not just tops for this season, that would be the all time single season record if he keeps up this pace! Ask anyone in the history of baseball, and they’ll tell you that limiting walks and maximizing strikeouts is the ultimate recipe for pitching success. According to fangraphs.com, Price’s performance this season has literally been off the charts!
So, what gives? If the K/BB ratio is otherworldly, why is he sporting a 3.97 ERA? Well, it doesn’t take much searching to find the main problem, namely, the gopher ball. Price is tied for 3rd in the majors, giving up a whopping 13 moonshots. His HR/Fly Ratio is at 12.3%, up from his career level of 9.4%. So how do we handle these conflicting statistical discoveries? Do we treat the HRs as a glass is half-full or half-empty scenario? In other words, do we take the stance that the high number is an aberration that will correct itself along with his ERA as the season wears on, or do we believe that this is simply the pitcher that Price is now… one who pounds the strike zone more often to the tune of a sterling K/BB ratio but also has a severe coinciding case of gopheritis? (Note: my spell check doesn’t recognize “gopheritis” as a legitimate word, but both you and David Price know better.)
Well let’s dig a little deeper and test these theories, shall we? Firstly, let’s find out if Price has had problems with the long ball throughout his career:
Nope, all’s quiet on the western front. His HR/9 rate is the highest of his career, the only other one above league average being his mediocre sophomore season in ‘09. It’s safe to say he’s never had too much of a problem keeping the ball in the park. So let’s take a stroll down the strike percentage lane to see if things are out of whack compared to his career baselines in those regards. The percentage of pitches Price has thrown inside the strike zone sits at 48.1% for 2014, not even one percentage point above his career norm of 47.4%. So the increased homers and strikeouts must NOT be due to an increase in pitches thrown inside the zone. Since we can rule that out, and he’s never had substantial HR issues in the past, we can safely say there’s a good chance that his HR-rate corrects itself in due time.
Perhaps the reason for the homers has been his slight decrease in velocity that’s sitting around 93.2 MPH this season which corresponds with his decreased velocity in ‘09 when he had the same spike in his HR-rate (Note: his career fastball sits at 94.4). That’s far from conclusive considering just how many strikeouts Price has had this season. Clearly, hitters aren’t just squaring off on everything he throws. The only thing that seems to be different since the midway point of last season to account for such a drastic increase in both K/BB and HR rates is an increased reliance on his change-up at 17% up from a 10.1% career line. But sometimes we have to take the bad with the good.
Conclusion:
All in all, we have to analyze this peculiar data set objectively. It does appear that Price has modified his pitches a little bit by incorporating the change-up more and throwing his fastball (intentionally or unintentionally) with a little less heat. His HR/Fly rate is nearly 3% higher than his career average, and that should stabilize as the season wears on. While his career splits show over a half run better ERA at home, this season he’s been far worse under the catwalk of Tropicana. Another number that should stabilize, particularly with his BABIP at a career high of .332. Being nowhere near his career line of .285, that number will come down, folks. The last caveat to consider is that Price could be traded to a contender by the deadline next month. The Rays are the worst team in baseball and sit 15 games out of 1st place in the AL East. He certainly seems a viable trade candidate with his hefty $14 Million contract this year. If he is traded, obviously his chances to win ballgames this season will increase exponentially. I know I know, wins shouldn’t be a counting statistic in fantasy baseball, but I live in the real world, and the great majority of leagues still use it.
Price is sporting the highest K/BB ratio of all time right now and leads the league in strikeouts. On the surface he seems like a guy that you might not be able to acquire on the cheap. However, his measly four wins and troublesome 3.97 ERA have some owners frustrated and they might be willing to part with him for the right “Price” (+1 Pun Point). While inquiring to his current owner, make sure you talk up the following: (1) his terrible team, (2) his diminished velocity, and (3) the two year trend of a mediocre ERA. Meanwhile be counting on a major second half performance… bid accordingly!
Expectations for 2014 ROS:
120 IP, 8 Ws, 128 Ks, 3.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Photo credits- Keith Allison, Flickr
