As the trade deadline draws closer, the deadline in your fantasy league is most likely to follow. Since starting pitching is becoming more of a hot commodity as of late, (thanks in part to the rising number of pitcher injuries in MLB this season) you might be considering a trade.
A blockbuster trade at this point in the season could potentially do you more harm than good. And of course, you definitely don’t want to be taken advantage of either.
Making that final move is a process. In this process, it’s always good to target an underrated player, especially if the fantasy owner is not aware of underrated part. Specifically, a pitcher that has a bad W-L record.
For an example, let’s take a look at Tyson Ross. On the surface his W-L record is not good (7-10), and he is actually 2nd in the NL in losses. Surprisingly, many fantasy owners would see just the W-L record and think they need to make a change without looking more closely at his numbers. They will also undoubtedly draw the conclusion that because he pitches in San Diego, he has no run support and is therefore screwed. And that’s not a terrible conclusion to draw. Perhaps the only redeemable qualities other owners might see in Ross is his low ERA (2.85) and his high strikeouts (126).
Now take a pitcher like Madison Bumgarner on the other hand. He is well-known, he plays in San Francisco(where there is run support believe it or not), he has a good W-L record (10-7), a decent ERA (3.47), and has quite a few strikeouts (128).
Typical run of the mill fantasy owner comes to his own startling conclusion. Madison Bumgarner is better than Tyson Ross. And then they move on which is good because that is the conclusion you want them to come to.
This is where you go on the offensive. You are looking to improve your team. And you know that despite all of Madison Bumgarner’s good surface stats, when you look deeper at them he’s not quite getting the job done. The possibility also remains that the owner that is in possession of Tyson Ross, is not fully aware of just how good he truly is. And that is why you want to trade Ross for Bumgarner.
While Bumgarner is 4th in the NL in K’s (128), 4th in K/9 (9.1), 6th in Wins (10), and 6th in IP (127), he is also leading the NL in a category that is not so favorable. Bumgarner is 5th in the NL with 127 hits allowed. Meh, that’s not too bad right? He still seems better than Ross.
That is where you would be wrong. First of all, Tyson Ross is ranked among the NL top 10 in: Daytime ERA 1.00 (1st), Innings Pitched 129.2 (5th), K/9 8.7 (7th), K’s 126 (7th), ERA 2.85 (9th), and Batting Average Against .231 (9th). Other than wins, strikeouts, and K/9 Ross is better, and even in those stats Bumgarner has a slim lead.
All of that said there is another stat that once and for all sets these two apart. Pure Quality Starts. Tyson Ross has 11 perfect PQS starts this season, while Madison Bumgarner has just 6. Bumgarner has also had two disastrous starts this season that resulted in a PQS score of zero.
There is obviously no way to predict if Ross will continue to pitch the way he has in the first half. And there’s no way to know for sure if Bumgarner will continue being mediocre in the 2nd half. However, if they both continue on the same path and you pull off this trade? You might just find yourself breaking into the playoffs instead of retreating to the maintenance of your fantasy football roster come September. Heck, you might even find Ross on waivers since he is only 81% owned in Yahoo! leagues, and 91% owned in ESPN leagues!
Follow Matt on Twitter: @SprayBall
