The Detroit Tigers are gearing up for the postseason, and so are most fantasy owners. However, both parties are not sure on how to proceed with Justin Verlander.
Verlander is flirting with one of his worst seasons since 2008 and arguably his worst ever. While the Tigers will most likely hold Verlander back and use him in the bullpen if they reach the postseason, fantasy owners (especially those fighting for a spot in the playoffs) have some tough decisions to make.
To point fantasy owners in the right direction in regards to Verlander, we’ll share a little statistical analysis from our good friends at numberFire.com who are providing ana Verlander for the rest of the season:
First, let’s note that Verlander isn’t having a bad season. He just isn’t looking like the dominant Justin Verlander of old. Let’s compare some important rate statistics he had from 2009 to 2013 against those he has now in 2014:
| K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | FIP | IP/Start | WAR/33 Starts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-2013 | 9.17 | 2.50 | 0.74 | 39.6 | 7.60 | 2.99 | 6.93 | 6.58 |
| 2014 | 6.56 | 3.03 | 0.91 | 41.5 | 7.80 | 4.08 | 6.57 | 2.89 |
Verlander’s walk and home run rates have increased slightly, but not tremendously. He’s still getting ground balls at his usual rate, and nothing’s really changed about his HR/FB rate. What’s truly effecting his FIP and, therefore, his WAR, is his strikeout rate. Verlander is now striking out approximately two fewer batters per nine innings than usual. What could be the cause of this?
Let’s take a look at the effectiveness of Verlander’s pitches more closely by examining his pitch type linear weights from 2013 and 2014:
| wFA/C | wSL/C | wCU/C | wCH/C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| 2014 | -0.46 | 0.75 | -1.41 | -0.03 |
Read the rest of the in-depth article from numberFire.com here
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Mandatory Photo Credit: Keith Allison, Flickr via CC
